Thursday, April 02, 2020

Arms control: The world’s security risks have become more severe. But what are today’s great powers willing – and able – to do to counter them?

By Dan Smith

The contemporary security horizon is marked by a worrying number of negative developments. Gloomy prognoses abound. Although the details of analysis often differ quite significantly, the dismal mood is widely shared. This mood has barely shifted over the last four years. For confirmation, just consider the titles of successive editions of the Munich Security Report:…

After scrapping INF, how might we prevent Arms Race 2.0?

By Richard Burt and Jon Wolfsthal

As we move into 2019, a new round of US-Russian nuclear competition – Arms Race 2.0 – is clearly emerging. The risk of nuclear conflict through deliberate action or some tragic combination of mistakes and escalation is growing. While both sides are developing and deploying new offensive and defensive strategic systems, the two governments are …

Epochal breaks : Europeans need to get their house in order

Epochal breaks : Europeans need to get their house in order
By Wolfgang Ischinger

The year 2019 marks the 55th convening of the Munich Security Conference at a decisive time in international affairs, a time in which we will see the impact of the escalating crises of recent years.

To Europeans, the crisis of the trans-Atlantic alliance is particularly troubling. To feel it crumbling beneath our fingers is deeply …

ESTABLISHING AN EUROPEAN ARMY: Even if prudent, there will be no European army any time soon

By Klaus Naumann

Concerns are growing in many European countries that they can no longer depend on the United States and the security guarantees enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. President Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from Syria marked the end of US reliability. Doubts about America’s trustworthiness have produced a flurry of driveling speeches …

ESTABLISHING AN EUROPEAN ARMY: The future of the West will be a conditional, task-oriented and transient affair.

By François Heisbourg

NATO is not dead. European defense budgets have been rising steadily since 2014; American forces are staying in Europe; and Donald Trump will eventually leave the White House. Yet Europe can no longer assume the permanence of the historically exceptional strategic order created some 70 years ago. China has become the United States’ peer competitor …

NATO: Recalibrating its geostrategic compass is a must if the Alliance is to remain relevant

NATO: Recalibrating its geostrategic compass is a must if the Alliance is to remain relevant
By Karl-Heinz Kamp

On its 70th anniversary, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is doing fairly well as the most successful security alliance in modern history. Through constant evolution and adaptation, NATO has managed to preserve its relevance for both sides of the Atlantic, each a fundamentally unique security environment. In the long term, however, NATO faces an almost …

Even proven foreign policy instincts do not much help when confronting challenges of a new sort. Moving forward, Europeans must forge a new social consensus on foreign policy

Even proven foreign policy instincts do not much help when confronting challenges of a new sort. Moving forward, Europeans must forge a new social consensus on foreign policy
By Volker Stanzel

A look at Western Europe’s postwar history helps illuminate what served as its foreign policy’s point of departure in the past, and the foundation that undergirds its foreign policy moving forward. We can view the outcome of World War II as a global overthrow of Europe. In a matter of a few years, European imperialists …

“What’s wrong with America First?” – and other foreign policy questions Democratic presidential candidates will have to answer

By Anne-Marie Slaughter

As of the beginning of February, nine Democratic candidates had announced a bid for the US presidency; The New York Times estimates that a tenth candidate is “all but certain to run” and identifies three more as “likely to run” and an additional nine who “might run.” That adds up to a potential 21 candidates …

Violence has morphed from a political instrument into an economic resource, but this is only one of five reasons for today’s never-ending conflicts

By Herfried Münkler

In the grand scheme of European history, the 19th century stands out as an era of peace. However, this characterization of the epoch – defined by historians as spanning the Congress of Vienna and the start of World War I – rings only partly true. A whole series of wars dotted Europe at the time, …

The EU needs a firm grasp on its neighbor to the east

By Eric Bonse

When Federica Mogherini was named the European Union’s new foreign policy chief, one particular photo made the rounds in Brussels. It shows the Italian politician at the Kremlin, shaking the hand of Vladimir Putin. Their grasp is firm, their eyes locked. The photo was taken during her first trip to Moscow, in July 2014, when …

Despite their troubles, Europe and the US are not withering away. It would behoove Moscow to avoid escalations

Despite their troubles, Europe and the US are not withering away. It would behoove Moscow to avoid escalations
By Dmitri Trenin

Looking at the West today, a Russian who witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall 30 years ago sees a striking picture. Political America is gripped in a cold civil war, and is led by a president who acts as if he were still the star of a reality TV show. British politicians have managed …

Helsinki 2.0: We need new multilateral formats, including a new permanent conference on European security with Russian participation

Helsinki 2.0: We need new multilateral formats, including a new permanent conference on European security with Russian participation
By Alexey Gromyko

In the long and complicated history of the Cold War, tensions and détente had their peaks and troughs. One profound achievement of peacemaking was the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, signed in Helsinki in 1975. It was the embodiment of a new modus vivendi, above all in the relationship …

Cold hard fact: Peace is only possible with Moscow on board

By Rolf Mützenich and Achim Post

When Social Democrats make the case for new initiatives in Germany’s official Russia policy, they are usually dismissed for being “naïve Russophiles.” So let’s get the following out of the way before we go any further: Yes, the Russian state has broken international law and continues to undertake obvious attempts to destabilize the EU and …

From Brussels with love. To a more assertive EU in a volatile world

By Helga Maria Schmid

As we meet in Munich this year, the prediction made in last year’s edition of this paper with regard to the growing importance of great power rivalries still rings in our ears. Geopolitics is back and likely to stay.

What is more, our strategic environment is growing ever more unpredictable. Today, major powers openly challenge …

This year’s EU elections could become an unlikely battleground for the future of the liberal world order

By Mark Leonard

The Munich Security Conference has grown accustomed to ranking the security threats to the West: Islamist terrorists, Russian revisionism or the global ambitions of China’s big data dictatorship. But today, the most critical challenges come not from outside the West but from the political dynamics within.

In 2019, they actually derive from one of the …