Monday, February 06, 2023

Deterrence: precarious in theory, effective in practice

Deterrence: precarious in theory, effective in practice
By Michael Rühle

During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the famed US film director Stanley Kubrick decided to move to Australia. He reckoned that in a nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union, the fallout would be less Down Under. However, when he learned that he would have to share the bathroom of the ship’s …

Why it is more dangerous and less predictable than Cold War

By Rosen Plevneliev

Analysts and politicians talk about a new Cold War. In my view, the term does not fit the current situation; Cold Peace is more apt.

Cold Peace is worse, more dangerous and less predictable than Cold War. It is “cold” because no one wants to fight a war. Yet a few old methods have made …

The crisis of the conventional arms control regime

The crisis of the conventional arms control regime
By Stephanie Liechtenstein

Europe is witnessing the worst security crisis since the end of World War II. The conflict in eastern Ukraine and the illegal annexation of Crimea demonstrated again that military conflict is still possible in Europe.

This is aggravated by a general increase in military activity, including the stationing of Russian and NATO forces along strategic …

Missing: A white paper on security

By Alexander Graf Lambsdorff

Europe stands at a crossroads. Internally, populist forces question the basis of our liberal democracies and the Brexit vote has shaken the very foundations of the EU, probably the world’s most successful democratic project.

Externally, the list of challenges seems almost infinite; vast parts of the Middle East and Central Africa are held back by …

The OSCE is the foundation for a pan-European security infrastructure

By Sebastian Kurz

Wherever we look, we see wars and armed conflicts: Syria, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Eastern Ukraine. We have witnessed violations of international law, burgeoning isolationism and looming trade wars. We are confronted with flows of migrants that are increasingly difficult to control. Radicalization, fanaticism and violent terrorist acts have struck at the heart of our …

Why Europe must assert itself

Why Europe must assert itself
By Harald Kujat

It may be overstating the case to claim that US President Donald Trump’s inauguration signals the start of a new world order, but his policies will set off a new dynamic in the geopolitical “parallelogram of power” comprising the United States, Russia, China and Europe.

A possible American-Russian rapprochement is already causing concern in Europe, …

The UN’s António Guterres plans to respond to critical situations before they become crises

By Peter Koepf

The world is “at war,” said António Guterres in 2015; but 2017 should be “a year of peace.” The nations of the world seem to be losing their way amid raging egoism, but Guterres, at he was sworn in as secretary general of the United Nations on Jan. 1 of this year, recalled the original …

The EU will survive Brexit. But will NATO?

The EU will survive Brexit. But will NATO?
By Daniel Keohane

The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. Is the EU fragmenting, or will EU governments consolidate while finally getting their act together on defense? Donald Trump is the president of the United States. Is NATO increasingly obsolete, or will Europeans contribute more and convince Washington not to scale back its military commitment to European …

No German foreign policy interest is more vital than fortifying a stable Europe

By Wolfgang Ischinger

When Germany’s President Joachim Gauck, Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier argued at the Munich Security Conference in early 2014 that Germany would need to assume greater responsibility in foreign and security policy, the world was still comparatively stable and European security relatively intact.

Since then, however, with the annexation …

Fighting in Eastern Ukraine is worse than it has been for a long time – time for Kiev to act generously

By Frank Hofmann

At the end of January, fighting in Eastern Ukraine escalated again. On that weekend, newly elected US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone for the first time. Many in Ukraine saw a connection between this call and the fighting for the town of Avdiivka. But this renewed escalation in the …

What NATO and the EU can do to contain the threat

What NATO and the EU can do to contain the threat
By François Heisbourg

During the first two decades of the post- Cold War era, nuclear weapons as a factor of European security disappeared from the public eye. They only gained intermittent prominence as part of a broader discussion of non-proliferation, the Iranian nuclear program, or of abolition after President Barack Obama’s speech in Prague in 2009. Nukes had …

Old alliances in the age of “America First”

Old alliances in the age of “America First”
By Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Ulf Gartzke

America’s political pendulum has swung back once again – and this time in a “huge” and unparalleled way. GOP Congressman and Donald Trump supporter Tom Cole put it succinctly when he commented on the 45th president’s inauguration: “It really is a leap into the dark. And I think that’s true for the country and that’s …

Europe reacts to “America First”

By Jean-Marie Guéhenno

It is unclear whether US President Donald Trump is aware of the history behind the expression “America First,” the term he uses to describe his foreign policy vision. The catchphrase was first used just before World War II by isolationists who opposed any American engagement in the mounting European crisis. The echo of that dark …

We can – and must – build on the unity of the transatlantic alliance

By Sigmar Gabriel

The paradigm of a world in crisis is dominating the international debate. “Post-truth?”, “Post- West?”, “Post-order?” are questions certain to be raised at the Munich Security Conference. In the echo chambers of the “every nation for itself” ideologists, it sounds as if we are already on the slippery slope towards a Hobbesian system in which …

An unorthodox view of the Israel-Palestine problem

By Michael Wolffsohn

First, the thesis: The twostate solution is not a solution. It only creates new problems. “Israel here, Palestine there” sounds good, and was recently repostulated by the United Nations, Barack Obama and John Kerry, but it won’t bring about the desired peace.

The goal: Individual and collective self-determination.

The premises: The configuration of states in …