Monday, November 19, 2018

The Minsk Protocol in the absence of trust

The Minsk Protocol in the absence of trust
By Fyodor Lukyanov

Stock exchange traders know what a Minsky Moment is. It’s when a market fails or falls into crisis after an extended period of market speculation or unsustainable growth. This phenomenon was named for Hyman Minsky, an economics professor famous for arguing that a long bull market tends to end in large collapse.

As we live …

World powers are scrambling for influence over Asian maritime routes

By Carlyle Thayer

Security alignments in the Asia-Pacific are quickly hardening in response to China’s rise and regional assertiveness.

These realignments have led to the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or simply the Quad, which comprises the United States, its two close allies Australia and Japan, and India. The Trump administration’s endorsement of the term “Indo-Pacific” gives …

A mechanism to manage security tensions in the Asia-Pacific region

By Kevin Rudd

As we meet this year at Munich, global tensions are at their highest point since the end of the Cold War. Like much of the rest of the world, Asia saw a number of security crises unfold over the last year. Tensions between China and South Korea flared over Seoul’s deployment of the THAAD missile …

Beijing’s plans for a globalization that is more open, inclusive, and beneficial for all

Beijing’s plans for a globalization that is more open, inclusive, and beneficial for all
By Fu Ying

As we enter 2018 and move toward the end of the second decade of the 21st century, the world is witnessing new instabilities and turbulent situations. Having attended forums in Munich, Sochi and Rome in late 2017, I could sense the anxieties in international strategic circles. People were asking: What is happening in the world …

China’s relations with its neighbors and the West will define the next world order

By Theo Sommer

For seven decades now, the world’s most perilous flashpoints have all been in Asia: Kashmir, Taiwan and Korea. India and Pakistan fought three bloody wars over Kashmir, in 1947-48, 1963 and 1971, and still face one another at gunpoint in the contested Himalayan region. Beijing’s determination to reunify Taiwan with the mainland has triggered several …

North and South Korea are speaking again, but Pyongyang will never give up its nuclear weapons

By Matthias Nass

One can be forgiven for doubting that Kim Jong-un is an “absolutely competent and mature politician,” as Russian President Vladimir Putin has called him. He is rather a cold cynic risking the lives of millions of people to secure his own political survival. Indeed, the sole reason he is amassing a nuclear arsenal is to …

China’s long-term strategy for becoming the world’s number one power

By Kishore Mahbubani

When Donald Trump became US president on Jan. 20, 2017, the world could and should have seen a downturn in Sino-American relations. During his election campaign, Trump had criticized China fiercely: “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that’s what they are doing.” He also declared he would “label China a …

India sees the Belt and Road Initiative for what it is: evidence of China’s unconcealed ambition for hegemony

India sees the Belt and Road Initiative for what it is: evidence of China’s unconcealed ambition for hegemony
By Samir Saran

For 73 days between June and August 2017, Indian and Chinese troops were locked eyeball to eyeball over a small strip of land marking the tri-junction between India, Bhutan and China: the Doklam Plateau. The clash was ostensibly triggered by Chinese road construction activities around disputed territories. But military tensions at Doklam are only the …

The Islamic State’s nature and dynamics are certain to change

By Peter R. Neumann

Over three years after the launch of the military campaign against the Islamic State, the US-led global coalition, together with Iraqi and Kurdish forces, have accomplished their mission. Ninety-eight percent of the territory IS once held in Syria and Iraq has been recaptured. The caliphate’s most important cities, Raqqa and Mosul, are no longer controlled …

Preventing a cyber-Pearl Harbor is not the only digital challenge nation states face

By Joseph S. Nye, JR.

Cyber security is a relatively new foreign policy problem. A decade ago it received little attention, but in 2013 the US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper declared cyber security risks to be the biggest threat facing the nation.

In 1996, only 36 million people or about 1 percent of the world population used the …

The future of arms control remains in the hands of Russia and the US

The future of arms control remains in the hands of Russia and the US
By Dan Smith

The arms control horizon is both grim and complex, bogged down by a triple tangle of geopolitical, strategic and technological factors while reflecting the depth and difficulty of today’s security dilemmas. The continued inability to move forward risks deepening them, yet even small advances could signal and encourage an easing of global tensions.

In the …

The South Korean military is catching up with a new drone army

By Kim Min-Seok

Conventional warfare tactics, traditionally maintained through rifles and tanks, artillery, and fighter jets, is now centered on the rapid innovation and advancement of IT, artificial intelligence (AI), avionics and cyber technology in developed countries. The battlefield is expanding to five dimensions – ground, sea, air, space and cyber. However, the South Korean military faces a …

Building a lethal autonomous weapon is easier than building a self-driving car. A new treaty is necessary

Building a lethal autonomous weapon is easier than building a self-driving car. A new treaty is necessary
By Stuart Russell

Beginning in 2014, the High Contracting Parties of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) have held meetings at the United Nations in Geneva to discuss possible limitations on the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapons systems (AWS). In November 2017, the CCW convened a formal Group of Governmental Experts (GGE), chaired by India’s …

The moral obligation of using AI to reduce atrocities

The moral obligation of using AI to reduce atrocities
By Ronald Arkin

Let me unequivocally state: The status quo with respect to innocent civilian casualties is utterly and wholly unacceptable. I am not in favor of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) nor of lethal weapons of any sort. I would hope that LAWS would never need to be used, as I am against killing in all its …

Return to reason. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is highly contentious. Two German experts present their different views for The Security Times.

Return to reason. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is highly contentious. Two German experts present their different views for The Security Times.
By Friedbert Pflüger

As polarized as the discussion surrounding Nord Stream 2 may be, each side posits legitimate arguments deserving of careful consideration. It is thus essential to discard doomsday scenarios, return to reason and soberly substantiate the debate. Four main issues are at stake:

Detractors of Nord Stream 2 argue that European energy security is already impaired …